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☆ Trump says he wants huge tariffs if elected. That could send inflation spiking.
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

But research from the bipartisan Tax Foundation suggests otherwise, and says Trump's 2018 trade war was also economically damaging. The non-partisan Tax Foundation would beg to differ. Tax Foundation estimates that the tariffs then imposed have amounted to an $80 billion tax increase on Americans. Nobody else ever did anything on China," Trump explained. More tariffs under Trump could be poorly timed, as US monetary policy is already struggling to clamp down on current inflation levels.

Persons: Trump, —, Donald Trump, Biden, Kenneth Rogoff Organizations: Time Magazine, Foundation, Service, Time, Republican, Trump, Federal Reserve Locations: China, India, Brazil, United States, Beijing

☆ Markets will rebel if Trump or any president tries to control the Fed, Harvard economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Markets would resist executive influence over the Federal Reserve, Kenneth Rogoff told Bloomberg TV. Inflation expectations would jump while the dollar would tank, the Harvard professor said. Donald Trump allies have reportedly been brainstorming ways for him to exert more influence over the Fed, if elected. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementPolitical attempts to influence the Federal Reserve won't go over well with markets, Harvard's Kenneth Rogoff said.

Persons: Kenneth Rogoff, Donald Trump, —, Harvard's Kenneth Rogoff Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Service, Reserve, Business

☆ Unrealistic for US Fed to lower interest rates to 2.5% in this economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'Completely unrealistic' for the Fed to lower interest rates to 2.5% in this economy: Kenneth RogoffKenneth Rogoff of Harvard University explains why U.S. interest rates are likely to remain higher for longer.

Persons: Kenneth Rogoff Kenneth Rogoff Organizations: Fed, Harvard University

☆ Trump's proposed tariffs would be 'recessionary' and could spark a resurgence in inflation, Harvard economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-14 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Trump's trade policies would be "recessionary" and could make inflation worse, according to Kenneth Rogoff. The Harvard economist pointed to Trump's proposed tariffs on imports, including a 60% tariff on Chinese goods. AdvertisementDonald Trump's proposed tariffs on imports would have "recessionary" effects on the US economy and could end up sending inflation higher again, according to top economist Kenneth Rogoff. Rogoff said that Trump's proposed policies and Joe Biden's Inflation Reduction Act make them both the "most protectionist" presidential candidates the US has seen in a while, Rogoff said to Bloomberg on Wednesday. That could hamper economic growth and stoke inflation, making Trump one of the biggest threats to the global economy, "Dr. Doom" economist Nouriel Roubini recently argued.

Persons: Kenneth Rogoff, —, Donald Trump's, Rogoff, Trump's, Joe Biden's, Doom, Nouriel Roubini, Biden, Donald Trump, overspending Organizations: Harvard, Bloomberg, Service, International Monetary, stoke, Trump, Bank of America, Project Syndicate Locations: China, stoke, Washington, Japan

☆ Cash is no longer king. So why are we still printing so much?
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-26 | by ( Lloyd Lee | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

An economics expert tells BI that cash still remains crucial for "certain segments of consumers." AdvertisementWhen it comes to how Americans prefer to spend their money, cash is actually not king. That represents a consistent decline in cash payments since the pandemic in 2020, which saw many shifts in consumer behavior, including an acceleration of online shopping. The following year, the study showed that cash made up 19% of payments and has not recovered since. Cash is still king of some thingsEconomics experts say that despite increasing reliance on cards, cash remains resilient and an important payment method for many consumers.

Persons: —, Cash, Christopher Bechler, Bechler, Benjamin, Sage Handley, Kenneth Rogoff Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, . Federal, University of Notre Dame Mendoza College of Business, Business, Association for Consumer Research, Federal, Street Journal, Harvard University

☆ A Goldilocks economy could be coming, but a key piece of the puzzle remains elusive
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-06 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

In today's big story, we're looking at why investors are eyeing an even better outcome for the market than a soft landing . The big storyMarket's sweet spotPiotr PowietrzynskiForget about a soft landing, some market watchers want something just right. For months, investors hoped the Fed's tightening policy would culminate in a soft landing: lowering inflation while avoiding a full-blown recession. But why settle for a soft landing when you can get it all? Liu Jie/Xinhua via Getty ImagesA Goldilocks economy still hinges on the Fed cutting rates, which has proved fleeting for investors.

Persons: —, hasn't, Piotr Powietrzynski Forget, Matthew Fox, Solita, Marcelli, Jerome Powell, Liu Jie, we'll, Powell, Banks, Kenneth Rogoff, Jensen Huang, Rick Wilking, Goldman, Goldman Sachs, Savita Subramanian, Gen, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Fintechs, VCs, Sam Altman, Altman, didn't, Scott Winters, Alyssa Powell, Travis Kelce, Experian, It's, EVs, Dan DeFrancesco, Hallam Bullock, Jordan Parker Erb Organizations: Service, Apple, Business, Getty, Bank of America, Harvard, Nvidia, CES, Kansas City Chiefs, US Treasury, New York Times, UBS, FAA, Boeing, Max Locations: Americas, Washington ,, Xinhua, Jensen, Las Vegas , Nevada, U.S, China, New York, London

☆ China's economic troubles are a result of the post-2008 'debt supercycle' finally coming back to bite it, Harvard economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-21 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

China is being hit by a "debt supercycle" that began with the 2008 financial crisis, Kenneth Rogoff said. While Beijing has a strong record of containing economic fires, today's crisis of slowing growth and high debt is unprecedented, he added. "The debt supercycle may have lasted longer than initially expected, perhaps because of the pandemic. But it was a critical piece of the story, and now, as China's economy falters, it is the best explanation for what might come next," he later added. Trouble for China's economy could stretch on over the long-term as it faces poor growth prospects, experts have warned.

Persons: Kenneth Rogoff, Rogoff Organizations: Service, Project Syndicate, Harvard Locations: China, Wall, Silicon, –, Europe, Beijing

☆ Inflation’s real benefits beat theoretical costs
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Felix Martin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Yet economic theory has a remarkably hard time identifying the social costs imposed by a rising price level. A more serious charge is the uncertainty that rising prices introduce into financial planning. If the theoretical costs of inflation are elusive, the potential advantages it has to offer are more concrete. U.S. house prices, meanwhile, peaked last year at a full 45% higher in real terms than when Rogoff made his plea. In the end, the practical benefits of inflation will trump its theoretical costs.

☆ Deutsche Bank, Credit Suisse, and what to know about the financial turmoil — and how one company is working to boost the number of women on Wall Street
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-25 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The program collaborates with UPenn's Wharton business school, and it teaches college women the fundamentals of markets, portfolio management, and finance. Katherine Jollon Colsher, President and CEO, Girls Who Invest Girls Who InvestKatherine Jollon Colsher is the chief executive officer and president of Girls Who Invest, a nonprofit that aims to help women enter asset management and other careers across Wall Street. Katherine Jollon Colsher: We work exclusively in the buy side, and we do focus exclusively on placing women in internships and frontline investing roles to advance more women portfolio managers. With that, our vision is for 30% of the world's investable capital to be managed by women by 2030. Shares of the German bank tumbled on Friday, as the cost of credit default swaps linked to its bonds shot higher.

☆ Recessions, bank failures, and stagnant stock returns - experts see a new, difficult era dawning for markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-25 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Wall Street experts see a new era ahead for markets, marked by a more difficult investing environment. Central bankers have already raised interest rates over 1,700% over the last year to quell high prices. Despite the volatility in bank stocks, Fed officials raised interest rates another 25 basis-points this week, bringing the effective Fed funds rate to 4.75-5%. That's the highest interest rates have been since 2007, and the impact of SVB's collapse is likely equivalent to another 50-75 basis points in rate hikes, Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi estimated, meaning real interest rates are even more restrictive. Some experts have argued that SVB's collapse was due to the bank's uniquely high exposure to bonds, which have been weighed down heavily by rising interest rates.

☆ The current banking crisis is a 'worldwide phenomenon' that started long before SVB failed, Harvard professor and former IMF economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Chaos in the banking sector was a long time coming, according to a former IMF chief economist. The crisis was, in part, caused by banks betting on a prolonged period of ultra-low rates, Kenneth Rogoff said. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. Rogoff, a leading scholar of financial crises, said chaos ensued after a number of years of ultra-low interest rates. "I didn't know it would [start] in the US banking sector," he said, adding that issues could've taken place in Japan or Italy before SVB was seized by regulators.

Jan 19 (Reuters) - Zambia needs "desperate debt relief" and agreements under a Group of 20 restructuring vehicle are proving difficult, the World Bank's managing director of operations said on Thursday. "In the last two years, we have seen the limitations of the common framework," Axel van Trotsenburg told a panel at the World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Davos, moderated by Reuters Editor-in-Chief Alessandra Galloni. Zambia has become a test case for the G20-led "Common Framework" restructuring vehicle launched during COVID-19 to streamline debt restructuring efforts as poorer countries buckle under the fallout from the pandemic hit. "Right now we have negotiations where there is not an established debt sustainability framework. What you see in the discussions is that different creditors are challenging all the underlying assumptions," van Trotsenburg added, without specifying which creditors he was referring to.

☆ Expect home prices to fall another 10% in the US and across the world as interest rates stay high, top economist Kenneth Rogoff says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Property prices in the US and around the world will fall another 10%, Kenneth Rogoff told Bloomberg. The Harvard professor said central banks' interest rate hikes are yet to have a full impact on the economy. "If — as I think — interest rates are going to stay high for some time to come, I think there's still a lot of downward adjustment in the market." The Fed, like its global counterparts, raised interest rates throughout much of 2022 to rein in inflation. "Interest rates aren't going to come down to the same level as they were before," Rogoff said.

Reuters GraphicsThe U.S. central bank is already adjusting to one unanticipated set of changes - an outbreak of inflation coupled with stalled growth in the U.S. labor force. "You have to identify the regime change ... Then you have to understand the transition dynamics ... and have a clear vision and insight into all of those ... "Markets calibrated to ... Chinese growth and low interest rates may prove fragile." Like recessions, which are typically identified only well after they have started, other economic turning points aren't always apparent in the moment. But as evidence of that accumulated following the 2007-2009 recession, it was only embodied into Fed policy in 2020 under a new approach that leaned against premature interest rate increases.

☆ Prepare for US house prices to slump, unemployment to spike, and a recession to set in, Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff expects a slump in US house prices and a wave of job losses. The Fed will likely have to keep interest rates higher for a while to crush inflation, he said. Rogoff expects that to hit asset prices and economic growth, making a recession a near certainty. "The Fed is nowhere near having conquered inflation," Rogoff said. Higher rates can temper inflation by encouraging saving and making borrowing more expensive.

The stakes are high as it potentially affects the future use and effectiveness of extraordinary monetary policies such as bond-buying 'quantitative easing' (QE) and questions the wider political independence of central bank policymaking. The European Central Bank, Bank of England and U.S. Federal Reserve are all - to differing degrees - now facing a backwash from years of policy-driven but lucrative balance sheet expansion. As they lift interest rates, that balance sheet burns a hole in their pockets - or more particularly the pockets of their governments long used to windfalls coming the other way. That will surely climb as the BoE is expected to at least double its policy rate, the rate paid on bank reserves, by May. G4 central bank balance sheetsThe easy-money era is overReuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsThe opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

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